Last year, you predicted that we would soon see a billion-dollar work of art. How many years away do you think that is?
I say confidently in 3-5 years a painting will sell for $1b.
Who do you think is likely to shell out that amount of cash?
Someone worth more than $1b. An obviously very rich man or woman, probably in a filed such as commodities, shipping or inherited wealth.
Do you think it would be made public or remain a private transaction?
In the facebook days we live in, nowadays every time you fart its Google-able. I don't even believe the concept of private information is any longer possible or viable.
We've seen $100 million + paid for a Picasso at Christie's, $110 mill for a Jasper Johns flag and $104m for a Giacometti sculpture. And you've wrote about the $1 billion block sale of Andy Warhols. How do you explain this art price arms race?
The art arms race is being driven by a few things: unheralded unencumbered wealth from natural resources as much as from the formation of information behemoths like Google, Microsoft et al. Then throw into the equation China, India, Russia, South America, and the Middle East and you have more than an arms race, a veritable feeding frenzy. To top it off, there will be no more van Goghs, Monets, Picassos, Warhols or even Basquiats.
In the competition to acquire art, who is winning? Do public galleries have any hope of competing? Who is winning?
Not Charlie Sheen. Collectors who had the courage to go out on a limb with no collective consensus and buy art prior to high prices or even those that bought at high prices! Anyone with great art is winning. Many museums had the foresight to buy great stuff and continue to not only support new art but help define what get's canonized. Sure they can't compete in the $100m arena, but who says taste at those precipitous levels corresponds with quality? There is plenty of art around at all price points.
What single piece of work do you think will achieve the $1 billion price mark? An old Master like Da Vinci, such as Lady With An Ermine, or Picasso? Or a modern work?
The $1b picture will be Picasso: after van Gogh cut off his ear and created the cult of personality, no artist has had as much far reaching impact and influence coupled with a degree of virtuosic achievement in a such a stylistic array. This feat has never been equaled not to mention the colorful and grand life-and tragic if you were married to him, his child or his grandchild. Unless maybe it’s Warhol, who in addition to creating such a multitude of masterworks, was shot and survived!
Is the art market a bubble comparable to the US property market?
The art market is no bubble, none at all. The difference form the late 80s runaway boom; 2007's frothy contemporary art speculators; and today, is that now we are faced with end-users fueling market activity. These are worldwide accumulators; whether for vanity or pure passion is not the issue, they are there and in force.
Will it burst?
I see nothing on the horizon, short or intermediate term, to change the trajectory of the art market. The train will roar ahead.
Is acquiring art a trend that will be overtaken as the wealthy find other ways to spend money and show off?
With ever increasing art prices, art will always be a handy place to show off. What better way to nail a few hundred million to the wall for the benefit and enjoyment of friends, family and associates? Art has the historic gravity and gravitas to please, entertain and amuse for ages and ages-and ages to come.
Do you have nay thoughts on which Picasso could fetch $1b?
Unfortunately, i don't know enough about the specific oeuvre of monumental paintings by Picasso to predict which, he painted so much, and I am far from an expert.
Are there any in private hands that could potentially be sold in the next few years?
There is zero doubt that every billion dollar painting that will hit the market in the coming years, and there will be more than one, is in private hands now. I heard George Soros is predicting a setback in art market in the short term; yes admittedly one would be stupid to lock horns with Soros, but if he could, he wouldn't make billions this time shorting the art market, I believe he is flatly wrong.
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